Well, the All-Star break is over–long over, if you’re a team like the Red Sox, whose momentum has suddenly shifted.  Races are heating up almost universally, and it’s time to start talking playoffs. There is, after all, only one October.

AL East

It’s hard to believe that the Yankees’ 6.5 game lead isn’t a commanding one at this point, especially given the Sox still-slumping bats (here’s looking at you, Jason Bay), and exhausted bullpen.  The Sox schedule is tough from here on out, too, with lots of games against contenders and plenty of time to face Tampa Bay, seemingly everyone’s nemesis.  (A few years ago, Derek Jeter was quoted as saying that the Devil Rays really had the Yankees’ number that year, and everyone laughed.  Now, nobody in Red Sox Nation’s laughing.)  Meanwhile, the Yankees get to play Oakland and Kansas City. Case closed.

AL Central

This is the AL race that could really surprise us.  Detroit’s in the lead right now, but we think that the White Sox, especially with the addition of Alex Rios, are going to end up taking it: Detroit’s been too spotty in recent years, and while the White Sox have a slightly tougher schedule, they also have a more reliable bullpen, Mark Buehrle, and now, a bat they needed.  Rios has been with the Blue Jays a long time before this, and he might well be one of those players who does phenomenal things when suddenly playing for a contender.  We think the White Sox are a force to be reckoned with, and it’ll be the Tigers doing the reckoning from their couches, come October.

AL West

This one is also close, but the Angels have Guerrero back, are coming off a sweep of the Giants, are used to making the playoffs, and have an easier month of August.  September’s another story for all these teams, when they all play each other like crazy, but we think the Angels are going to slowly pull away from Texas, who are currently hanging just 3.5 games back.  Whether they make it out of the first round of the playoffs, well, that’s been a historical problem for them.  But that’s another column.  (One that’ll piss off one of UPH’s best friends, so we’ll hold off.)  The truth here is that the Angels don’t need rally monkeys–they just need to keep doing what they’re doing and ride the wave.  As for Texas?  See below.

AL Wild Card

Boston, Texas, Detroit, and Tampa Bay are the real contenders here: the White Sox are going to play spoiler, even if they make the playoffs.  They’re 7 games back in the Wild Card race, but we think they’ll end up taking their division, and playing havoc with the rest of the standings in September.  In one crazy period of a bit more than a week, they play Boston, the Angels, and Seattle. and then at the end of the month three versus Detroit.  Meanwhile, the rest of these teams are all playing either each other or other contenders as well.  We’re not really seeing a late surge from Tampa Bay–they don’t seem to have the chemistry they did last year–but we think Texas is hungry, and might finally end up in the playoffs again. We’re looking forward to revisiting this during the craziness of the September schedules, but for now, that’s our pick.