But this doesn’t work for everyone.  And when it doesn’t, it tends to not work sort of…epically.

This week, it’s Brad Penny–whose first start after being released by the Sox (for whom he was serviceable, but only because he got ridiculous run support) was for the Giants…and involved eight spotless shutout innings.  Last week, it was John Smoltz, for whom Boston clearly didn’t work out.  Since he joined the Cardinals, he’s been stellar.  Smoltz and Boston both wanted the pairing to work, though Smoltz expressed some frustration with the pitching coaches.  Penny spoke highly of the organization as a whole and thanked them for giving him a chance.

So, why are these pitchers so good outside Boston? Not to mention players like Julio Lugo and, even more so, Edgar Renteria, who just don’t reach the same heights they have with other teams or, maybe worse, don’t fulfill what looks like their potential.

A lot of people might pass this off on the media, but we don’t think that’s it.  Certainly, there’s a lot of media pressure in Boston: maybe more than anyplace else, especially since 2004 and even more since ‘07.  The downside of a citywide culture of sports excellence?  Fans and media who expect more of the same.

But we’re also seeing something else here: maybe a downside to the clubhouse culture that’s been so vaunted.  Hell, we’ve vaunted it ourselves.  If that’s a verb.  (Even if it isn’t!)

We know the clubhouse is supportive of slumps, of injuries, of its players.  David Ortiz shows us that.  But this is a clubhouse that’s vulnerable to non-clubhouse guys.  Nomar caused problems, Manny caused even bigger ones. A truly strong culture wouldn’t be affected so strongly, but this one was.

Not that any of the guys I’m talking about–Penny, Smoltz, et al–are clubhouse cancers: far from it.  But we remember Doug Mientkiewicz* talking about how on the planes, he would try to read, which nobody else did, and he’d get mocked–goodnaturedly of course–to the point that he couldn’t read.

Our theory’s simple: if you don’t fit the mold, the rest of the pressure gets to be too much, especially if you’ve come from a place like Atlanta (considered a good team because of a tradition of what we’ll call low-key excellence, and with a respectful media presence and fanbase).  If you don’t make friends right away, if you don’t connect, even though everyone in the clubhouse may want to adopt you right into the fold–if that doesn’t work for you, Boston’s too much.

The upside? Players like Alex Gonzalez, who hit two homeruns all season…until August 15th when, once acquired by the Red Sox, he went on a tear. He’s hit four more since.

So maybe it isn’t a curse, but it’s happened too often for Theo Epstein and his hot-shit Moneyball guys to ignore.  There’s no stats in this post for a reason. Some things (just ask Jeter!) are intangible.

*You probably won’t believe us, but we spelled it right on the first try! That’s the ONLY time this has ever happened.

NL East

The Phillies just lost three games and are still four games up in this race, but they’ve been up and down all year.  We think that the roller-coaster ride has made them tough enough to stick this race out.  Pedro Martinez is coming to this club, and he’s a playoff persona to be reckoned with even outside of his pitching.  The addition can fire up a team that has at times lacked fire.  We think they’ve got it.

NL Central

Sure, St. Louis is leading, and they have Pujols.  We know that, we get it, he’s perhaps the most purely talented player of all time, etc. etc.  The Cubs have a homestand coming up in which they have to play the Phillies for three.  If they get through that, they get Pittsburgh and then San Diego, and we’d love to think they’ll take advantage and take some steps to actually winning a World Series for once in their poor, benighted lives, but winning the NL Central this year just ain’t to be for the Cubs, much as we hate to agree with Cards fans.  St. Louis’ schedule for the rest of August features two sets of games with the Padres and some tilts against the Nationals.  They spend much of the rest of the year playing Pittsburgh and Houston, guys. You just can’t bet against the Cards, here. Even if you really, really want to.

NL West

The Dodgers started off the year with a fabulous record and a big, silly scandal.  Now, the scandal is over and they’re playing better ball, percentage-wise, than any team in baseball not in pinstripes.  However, they have a lot of big series coming up: Chicago, St. Louis, and Colorado for the rest of this month.  We think they’ll come through, though–in part because September is such smooth sailing.  They’ll be happy to see the Pirates, Diamondbacks and Nationals, and they’ll run away with the division, no matter how often Troy Tulowitski hits for the cycle.  End of debate.

NL Wild Card

Every year, the Astros make a run for the wild card that is miraculous in nature and takes place after the All Star break.   This year, they came roaring out of the break…and then went back to playing their usual .500 ball.  Let’s be honest: if they hadn’t made a run in each of the past few years, they wouldn’t even be in this paragraph.  Moving on.  Colorado, San Francisco, and the Cubs are the real contenders here.   We’re giving a very slight edge to the Giants–they’re hungry, which we feel is key in wild card races, they’ve got Lincecum, and even Zito is settling in.  Also, Randy Winn is playing for them.  We didn’t know he was still alive, but since he is, his veteran presence will do a lot for some of the young ‘uns.  Giants it is.